Key points:
- A new study suggests a significant increase in heat-related cardiovascular deaths starting in 2036.
- The findings project an increase of nearly 3,000 deaths annually.
- The increased heat is projected to put older adults and Black adults at a higher risk of death.
A new analysis by researchers at the University of Pennsylvania has projected that the number of heat-related cardiovascular deaths in the United States will increase over the next four decades. The findings specifically indicate that older adults and Black adults are most at risk for excess heat-related deaths.
“As global temperatures rise, analyzing how demographic and environmental trends are connected is necessary for accurate forecasts of how extreme heat events will impact the cardiovascular health of U.S. adults in the coming decades,” said Sameed Khatana, MD, an assistant professor of cardiovascular medicine at Penn and senior author of the study.
For the study, published in Circulation, researchers evaluated the number of cardiovascular deaths that were associated with extreme heat from 2008 to 2019. In that time period, there were an average of 54 days each summer when the heat index rose to or above 90 degrees, and a total of 1,651 related cardiovascular deaths annually. Researchers then combined this estimate with the projected number of extreme heat days, as well as population levels in the middle of the century. As a result of more regularly recurring hot temperatures and demographic changes, they project between 4,320 to 5,491 deaths annually come the middle of the 21st century.
Furthermore, the researchers found that Black adults face a more than 500% increase in the coming decade compared with current deaths from cardiovascular-related complications. This could be due to the increased risks Black adults have for cardiovascular disease in general, which is tied to both societal disadvantages and clinical factors. Additionally, previous studies have shown that neighborhoods with a higher proportion of non-white residents have lower air conditioning access and less tree canopy cover.
“This is a health equity issue and without steps to mitigate its impacts, extreme heat may widen the pre-existing cardiovascular health disparities that already exist between communities in the United States,” said Khatana.
Additionally, people with underlying conditions, such as diabetes and heart disease, are at a greater risk when temperatures rise. Irregular heartbeat, heart attack, or stroke can occur as the body tries to cool itself down.