The photos on the top row show the impact of the flash drought on the ecosystem compared with photos of the same area without flash drought impacts (bottom row). Credit: University of Oklahoma
Key points:
- A new study found that flash drought occurrence is expected to increase globally as the climate warms.
- The model projects a 1.5 times increase in the annual risk of flash droughts over croplands across North America by 2100.
- Researchers emphasize that agricultural producers will face increasing risks when it comes to water availability.
Unexpected droughts, or flash drought, can severely impact ecological and agricultural systems and can have a ripple effect. In a new study, researchers at the University of Oklahoma have modeled how a warming climate may affect the frequency of flash droughts.
“In this study, projected changes in flash drought frequency and cropland risk from flash drought are quantified using global climate model simulations,” said Jordan Christian, a postdoctoral researcher and lead author. “We find that flash drought occurrence is expected to increase globally among all scenarios, with the sharpest increases seen in scenarios with higher radiative forcing and greater fossil fuel usage.”
According to the study results in Communications Earth & Environment, Christian’s model projects a 1.5 times increase in the annual risk of flash droughts over croplands across North America by 2100, from the 2015 baseline of a 32% yearly risk in 2015 to 49% in 2100, while Europe is expected to have the largest increase in the most extreme emissions scenario (32% to 53%), a 1.7 times increase in annual risk.
“This study continues to emphasize that agricultural producers, both domestic and abroad, will face increasing risks associated with water availability due to the rapid development of drought,” said Jeffrey Basara, an associate professor and study co-author. “As a result, socioeconomic pressures associated with food production, including higher prices and social unrest, will also increase when crop losses occur due to flash drought.”