Key Points:
- New analysis says China could be dominant research voice in less than 10 years.
- The analysis is based on five metrics that rank countries’ influence in the world of research.
- In all metrics, China is either leading or has made steady progress while others have declined in the past decade.
A new analysis released this week by research technology company Digital Science says China could surpass the U.S. and EU to become the most dominant voice in global research within the next decade.
Authors Daniel Hook, Digital Science CEO, and Simon Porter, VP Research Futures, proposed five key metrics to rank countries’ influence in the world of research. In each of the metrics, China has either already overtaken its main rivals, is close to overtaking them, or has been making a sustained challenge that could see the communist country rise to the top within the next 10 years. The authors say the five metrics were chosen “to show causal development” from one metric to the next.
- Percentage of GDP spent on research: China (at 2.4% of GDP in 2020) is currently second behind the United States (at 3.45% of GDP in 2020.)
- Gold Open Access (OA) publication volume: China nudging ahead of the European Union (EU) this year, based on extrapolated partial year data.
- Total publication volume: China overtaking the U.S. this year and also likely to overtake the EU.
- Proportion of global citations: China ahead of the UK and EU, but behind the U.S. On trend, China has been steadily increasing and the U.S. steadily declining for more than 20 years.
- Relative global influence: China fourth, behind the EU, U.S. and UK, but steadily rising for more than 20 years when others have either flatlined or declined.
“China’s progress against all of these metrics is impressive,” said Hook. “Within just a few years, China’s influence has developed to a point where it is clear that, if it continues on its current path, within a decade it will have surpassed the U.S. and be vying with the EU-27 for global pre-eminence in its ability to influence the research conversation.”
Information provided by Digital Science.