This illustration represents a host-pathogen network model created by UC Davis researchers. It shows potential linkages between 531 novel and known viruses, with different colors representing different virus families. Credit: UC Davis
Key Points:
- Network-based models have shown that coronaviruses have the largest potential for a spillover event.
- Paramyxoviruses, such as measles, mumps and respiratory tract infections, are also ranked as high-risk.
- The findings of the study conclude that coronaviruses are riskiest for spillover and should continue to be prioritized for enhanced surveillance and research.
There are hundreds of novel viruses that have the potential to pass between wildlife and humans. Given the massive effect of SARS-CoV-2, scientists are working diligently to tease out which viruses are riskiest for spillover, requiring further prevention tactics.
Now, scientists from the University of California, Davis have created network-based models to prioritize novel and known viruses by their risk of zoonotic transmission. The study, published in Communications Biology, provides evidence that coronaviruses are riskiest for spillover and should continue to be prioritized for enhanced surveillance and research.
“Characterizing hundreds of viruses takes a lot of time and requires prioritization,” said lead author and veterinary epidemiologist Pranav Pandit, a researcher with the UC Davis One Health Institute. “Our network-based approach helps identify the early signals in the ecological and evolutionary trajectories of these viruses. It can also help illuminate missing links between viruses and their hosts.”
The model uses a data-driven, virus-host network to quantify the likelihood of humans as hosts for more than 500 viruses newly discovered between 2009 and 2019. According to the results, novel viruses from the coronavirus family are expected to have a larger number of species as hosts. This is consistent with known viruses, indicating this family of viruses should be most highly prioritized for surveillance.
In additional to coronaviruses, the model also ranked several paramyxoviruses as high priorities for future work. Diseases associated with this family of viruses include measles, mumps and respiratory tract infections.
“This study shows how different wildlife species are connected by the viruses they share,” said corresponding author Christine Johnson, director of the EpiCenter for Disease Dynamics at UC Davis. “Environmental change is a massive driver for moving species around. How viruses interact with different hosts in a changing environment is critical to understanding the risk they pose to human health.”
Information provided by UC Davis.